Notes from Charlotte County, Florida

The light at the end of Florida's Real Estate Tunnel…?

Sarasota Herald Tribune - Published 06/02/2007

In what seemed part of a campaign to arm real estate agents against naysayers and fence-sitting buyers, the National Association of Realtors' top economist was in the region Thursday offering strong words of encouragement.

The softness that has bedeviled Southwest Florida's residential real estate market for almost a year has just about run its course and will not last beyond another six to 12 months, said Lawrence Yun.

"Do not bet against this region," he said. "In the long term, Sarasota will have faster home price growth than the rest of the country."

Yun's comments coincided with a report released Thursday by the University of Central Florida that stated flatly in its opening sentence: "For those with a house on the market, there's good news, the worst is over."

"The first quarter of 2007 will have been the worst of it, although in some markets, it may be a year before we get out of the housing doldrums," said Sean Snaith, director of UCF's Institute for Economic Competitiveness.

Nationally, Snaith is calling for a slow upward climb through 2009, but he said that because of Florida's growth, geography and demographics, the Sunshine State is likely to recover faster than the broader market and that the Sarasota-Manatee market might be among the first in the state to rebound.

Population growth is one of the reasons why Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, thinks Florida will be one of the first to recover from the housing doldrums. Below is state net migration from 2000 to 2006.